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Bicolandia's Weather Man


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Published:  January 7, 2008 | Author:  Ronald James Panis
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NAGA - WHEN asked about the downpour that gatecrashed the New Year's celebration in Naga City, David Michael V. Padua said it was just a cold front coming from China which is being sucked into Australia where a storm was brewing.

In his website, Typhoon2000.com (or maybagyo.com), Padua also indicated this type of weather as part of the cool Northeast Monsoon breezing over the country while accompanied with some rain showers - hence the very wet welcome and first few days of 2008.

Thank God for meteorologists, or those weather wonks from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa). They're here to tell us the hot from the cold fronts without speculation and soothsaying.

But Padua is neither a meteorologist nor part of Pagasa. He is a regular Internet system administrator working for one of the renowned colleges in this city who is in possession of a great knowledge and obsessive zeal for the weather.

Coupled with an impressively wide technical know-how accumulated through years of reading and studying, and vast connections to weather monitoring stations, Mike has many times proven to be of an invaluable help to the typhoon-stricken area of Naga.

This was initially evidenced in the coming of Super typhoon 'Unding' (international name, Muifa) in November of 2004 which charted a new course in his hobby. It was the first time when his fervor for the weather was utilized for the sake of the Naga community.

Padua recalled that after having wrought its havoc when it hit the Bicol peninsula days before, 'Unding' was reported by Pagasa later to be treading a different direction away from the region.

A subscriber to the Hawaii-based Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC/U.S. Navy & Air Force) and United Nation's Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Padua read from its updates that the storm which had intensified further was on its way to Naga again - and in just a matter of hours.

In his report published in his website, he noted that Unding followed a rare-clockwise loop, which is reminiscent of disastrous 'loopers' like typhoons Aning of December 1982 and Naning of December 1993.

Padua called up the local Pagasa station to share the reports he collated from the international weather stations; Pagasa however told him their monitoring showed otherwise.

When no warnings were still raised, Padua decided to inform Naga City Mayor Jesse Robredo of the possible nighttime approach of 'Unding.'

“I explained to (the mayor) that our city must be under storm signal number 3, which means that winds of more than 100kph can be expected in at least 18 hours, and we were only six hours away from the destructive winds (of Unding),” he wrote in his report.

Robredo then called an emergency meeting within the afternoon and later told radio stations to broadcast the imminent danger Naga was in, as Padua's alert practically screamed. At around 10 in the evening, the typhoon arrived, bearing gust rates at 130 kph and rain rates at 18 inches per hour high (as Padua's Davis Vantage Pro weather station recorded). Naga was once again in disarray, but loss of life, Padua said, was averted.

Two years later, when the destructive Reming (codename 'Durian') tore its way across Bicolandia - most especially in Albay and Legaspi where it ravaged the province via a massive lahar (volcanic material) flow -- Padua saw it as again a defining moment of his 'hobby.'

“I gave a blow-by-blow account (to radio stations),” he told Philippine News, adding that he gave updates as well every 30 minutes.

Thanks to his effort, he became a primary source for weather in Naga. The city also lauded him with awards: from the mayor for his help during 'Unding,' from the Naga City group of businessmen for his heroism during his 'Reming' watch, from the Philippine Amateur Radio Association.

In fact, certain government officials have offered to replace his weather instruments that Reming destroyed . Mike said it is what these officials told him is the least they can do to show how grateful they are of his unique ardor.

Mike said he has been a “typhoon enthusiast” since he was 5.

“I was already fascinated [by the weather] then,” he recalled.

He narrated how he would observe the sky outside his house, as well as track the course of storm through the radio. He would do newspaper clippings too to find additional data.

True to the 'weather man' he was to become, he reported the latest results by writing down the signal number on the blackboard. This was when he was in Kindergarten and Grade 1.

As he progressed in age, so did his uncommon interest. He devoured books with hurricane-like ferocity. With the local Pagasa station (a flood forecasting center in the neighboring province of Naga) sponsoring seminars and workshops on typhoon tracking, he attended them with such intensity and left a trail of awed professionals, particularly because of his fascination with this kind of work at a very young age. He got to befriend some of Pagasa's seasoned meteorologists as well.

He later on created a huge tracking chart which he placed in Naga College Foundation, the academe he's currently part of. In his high school years there, every time Bicol was under the threat of a typhoon, he would be asked to do rounds and update his fellow students. Some would even ask him, 'Michael, asan yung bagyo [where's the typhoon]?' to which he always had an answer - and an accompanying chart presentation.

Even in college, this hobby ensued. He studied BS Geography in UP instead of Meteorology which was offered as a master course. In UP, he became famous as well for his charts and up-to-date knowledge of the weather.

He returned to Naga after graduation, and taught meteorology as well as general radio communications in NCF. It was as Internet Center Administrator in 1997, which was the same time the Internet Age went full throttle in the Philippines that his comprehensive site was born.

He later on got to meet and make friends with people like Gary Padgett, creator of the Global Tropical Cyclone summary. He also became part of a worldwide tropical cyclone discussion group, which has 70 members from weather centers around the world. He also has setup his own weather station.

Of course, Mike has had his share of criticisms. But he doesn't mind.

“If the government wants me to stop, I will,” he said about going on air.

Some say his reports confuse people, but Mike is unperturbed.

He said, “Information is information, it won't hurt if one gets to have more options, especially if it means saving lives in the end.”

 

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